The Recession Is Over, Really?

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It's reported by the National Bureau of Economic Research committee after considering numerous economic data and concluding that several key measures of economic activity, including total output and industrial production, pointed to June 2009 as the trough of the business cycle. 
I can understand that the analysts using their guidelines and mathematical algorithms have mathematically determined the recession is over. I have a problem with that. Economists have it all worked out to a science the measurements and data necessary to call these things.

According this has been the longest recession since 1945. The latest one is the twelfth recession since then. So maybe we can trust the economists. They have been studying this for sometime with plenty of data to back them up.

But out here in the real world we see no evidence of the end of the recession even though it ended more than one year ago. I see everyday people out of work and families suffering. In my business we have real estate inventory to sell but can't.

Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, claims that because of the stimulus, disaster has been avoided. Most economists claim things are getting better because their numbers tell them so. But out in the world times are still very tough. 

Sorry economists but you are wrong, but who am I do go against educated people who study this stuff everyday. I like to take the advice of the old warriors like Warren Buffet. I can't listen to desk jockeys who don't know squat about business.

In an interview of Warren Buffet He states:

"I think we're in a recession until real per capita GDP gets back to where it was before. That is not the way the National Bureau of Economic Research measures it. But I will tell you that to any - on common sense definition, the average American is below where he was before, or his family, in terms of real income, GDP. We're still in a recession. And we are not going to be out for a while, but we will get out of it."

The Oracle of Omaha is  right of course. Most Americans struggling to pay their bills feel the same way. Survey after survey shows people are worried as ever about their economic future. Members of the National Bureau of Economic Research(NBER), who officially define when recessions start and end, seem to hide in their ivory towers issuing statements that confuse most people who barely remember their Econ 101 classes in college.

More and More Debt

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The United Kingdom owes $90 billion dollars in credit card debt. They have a population is 51 million people. The United States owes $850 billion dollars in credit card debt. It has a population of 305 million people. According to Consumers Reports Magazine and Whatsthecost.com.

In England they pay, just in interest on credit cards, $652,445,625. It's incredible this occurs every month. This is not principle, it's just the interest. That's not including interest on loans, mortgage or other types of debt.

The United States government has a total debt, at the present time, of $13.3 trillion dollars. The yearly interest payment for this debt is $383 billion dollars. According to the United States Department of the Treasury.

In a capitalistic economy like ours we are free to chose to go into debt for whatever reason we like. Some of us do by choice and some in desperation. The banks that provide the easy credit happily extend it to us. It's a service that's mutually desired. The essence of capitalism is the free exchange of goods and services for profit. 

The wisdom of the banks to extend unsecured debt in such a great amount, if defaulted on in great numbers, could bankrupt the company. Also the people taking the large amounts of credit are taking a risk and it could also be their downfall when they can't pay it back. But the risk to both parties is apparent and understood hopefully.

The difference between debt in the private sector and the government is that the private sector it's capitalism and the government it's not. The government goes into debt and has no function to pay it back, only by taxation, taking our money. We must earn our money in the economy to pay back our debt. The government is outside the give and take of capitalism. It's a thorn in the side of capitalism. It holds back the economy and hurts general business functions.

It's bad enough we are tax so heavily and our money is wasted by a government which has a foundation and history of incompetence. This is another reason for smaller government. No place could you find the mishandling of money on such a great scale.

The world has never seen this level of debt. We really don't know for sure what the ramifications will be. For the common man living with high debt payments it's a detriment. When all your money goes out for debt payments, isn't your standard of living lower? Isn't your quality of life much lower. Don't you just go paycheck to paycheck with no end in site, until the day you can't make anymore payments and go bankrupt.

We can agree that in the real world, in our individual lives this is not sustainable. There is a day of reckoning. So doesn't it make sense that there will be a day of reckoning for our government. Doesn't the common sense we all live by apply in Washington DC?

The Strangest Secret

Back in 1950's there was a motivational speaker called Earl Nightingale. He was working in the radio industry. He had an insurance company and gave motivational talks. In 1956 he gave his most famous talk. It was recorded on vinyl and won a gold record for 1 million copies sold. It was called "The Strangest Secret".  
It's only a 30 minute recording but carries a lot of good ideas. He talks about the reasons some people have success and some fail. He states out of 100 people only 5 will be financially independent. With people living in a country of abundant opportunity, why is there so much failure? 
 
He says what is the definition of success? It's the "Progressive realization of a worthy ideal". Men fail and they do not know why. They even don't know why they go to work everyday. That by their own choice they conform to what everybody else is doing. There is no success in showing up for a job. A true success is "Doing the job you choose to do deliberately". If you chose a job and educate yourself, you are a success. 
 
He says we live today in a world with a plateau of security. Most everything is available to us, we just have to show up to get it. Just having a job is not success. We have no goals and we don't use are minds and think. 
 
He says the key to success is that "We become what we think". You are what your thoughts are. If you think negatively, you will be negative. If you think good you will be good. You have to believe you will succeed then you will. If you can't find the right circumstances then make them. If you think about frustration, fear and anxiety that's what you will become. If you think about nothing you will have nothing. 
 
The trouble with today's economy is it moves at the speed of it's weakest link. It all up to each individual. We have to use are minds and think. 
 
He states that our minds are the most powerful tool we have. What we put in it is what our lives will become. Our minds are like fertile ground. Our minds like the ground doesn't care what we put in it. It will only return what we put in it. Like the ground, if we plant corn we will get an abundance of corn. If we plant a poisonous plant we will get an abundance of poison. Our minds are the same. He says it a law that we cannot change. 
 
We are the sum total of our thoughts. We have a choice, we can put good things in our mind and live successfully or put bad things in our mind and live in the gutter. 
 
I like a lot of what he has to say. It's interesting that these motivational speakers go back this far and the talks are recorded. I found this on YouTube. 
 
He calls this way of living "The Strangest Secret" because it's been known for thousands of years but very few put it into practice. 
 
I can see if you focus on what your doing and have good goals you will be successful. The most interesting item I thought was when he said if you can't find the right circumstances to succeed then make them. That is very important because we blame the circumstances when we fail at something. We blame other people, place and things. Then we quit and are perfectly happy to say we tried. How many times have you heard that or said that yourself. I have done that myself. Did it occur to anyone to go and make their own circumstances. 
 
Earl Nightingale was a famous motivational speaker in his day and probably helped many people. I'm glad I came across his recordings. He made me think in a different way. Maybe that is the way successful people think. If you ever hear successful people who have built large companies from scratch, this is the way they talk. It's different from the rest of 

us. Earl Nightingale says "You have to act like failure doesn't exist". 

We Are All Self-Employed

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As we have found out, in today's economy, there is no job security. Large companies like General Motors and Ford can close up. Many companies are going bankrupt and their employees are now looking for employment  elsewhere.  Business are on shaky ground because of the economy. Your are no longer guaranteed your job. You will eventually lose or leave your job.  But was that ever not true? .

  

 When you are employed you think that by doing your job and doing it well you are thinking you have job security. The idea that you work for an employer is an old attitude. You may find out that there is no such thing as a secure job. We are finding out the great autoworker jobs maintained by a strong union are not so secure. Even the Post Office may cut off Saturday delivery to reduce losses. Even the city and county workers in California are living with 15% wage cutbacks. 

You must reexamine the notion of you being an employee.  Don't see yourself as one. You should see yourself as a one person company, providing services to one customer. You are now self-employed. You are your own boss. This entails all the details of running a company. The first is providing a product to sell. That product is you.  The product must work correctly and provide the service need by you customer. If it doesn't fulfill the necessary requirements the customer will not continue to buy the product. You will be fired.

Second you must provide good communication with your customer. A necessary and timely interaction on the quality and delivery of the product. Is your performance in line with whats required for your work.

Third you must provide customer service. This entails follow-up on your products quality. Is it performing up to  advertised specifications. If its not your fired.

If you like you can always stay the employee. But you can also take on new challenges and think like a Boss. There is always time to express your purpose and passion for your life. Cliff Hakim in his book "We Are All Self-Employed" says "Believing that you work for an employer and acting as though by doing your work, your job will be secure - is a relic of an era long past."    

               

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